Brexit is really starting to hurt, according to CESA. The latest Brexit Watch, produced by EURIS, (European Union Relationship and Industrial Strategy), of which CESA is a founder member, makes difficult reading.
“The indicators we look at are, for the most part, disappointing,” says Glenn Roberts, chair of CESA. “The stats underline the need for a Brexit that gives our industries what they want – especially access to the single market and access to the EU workforce.”
This issue of the EURIS Brexit Watch comes exactly one year after the referendum. The main points are:
- Sterling’s average exchange rate fell by 1.1% with the US Dollar in the first 23 days of June 2017, compared with the May 2017 average.
- Input prices increased by 15.6% in April 2017 and 11.6% in May 2017.
- The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.9% in the year to April 2017, the highest 12 month growth since June 2013.
- The index of production grew by 0.2% in the month of April 2017 but fell by 0.8% compared to April 2016.
- The second estimate of UK GDP growth in first quarter of 2017 was revised down by 0.1% to 0.2%, equivalent to £471 billion.
- The provisional construction output, at constant prices, fell by 0.6% in the year to April 2017, the highest 12-month fall since May 2013.
- Turnover fell across the four monitored manufacturing industries in April 2017. On a yearly basis, only the mechanical manufacturing industry showed some growth (0.9%). Compared to April 2016, electronics fell by 5.0%, fabricated metals fell by 2.6% and electrical fell by 0.6%
There were some positives:
- Business investment for all industries grew by 0.6% to £43.8 billion in 2017 Q1.
- Although exports fell in value terms by 0.1% in April 2017, to £49.8 billion, compared to April 2016 export growth was up by 10.2%.
“We’ll continue to lobby and negotiate with the government for a Brexit that works,” says Roberts. “In the short term, however, it looks like business is going to be difficult for many manufacturers and suppliers.”