UK’s Inbound Visitor Economy Forecasts Resilient End to 2026

The latest research from UKinbound’s Business Barometer reveals a resilient outlook for the UK’s inbound visitor economy, with nearly three-quarters (73%) of businesses expecting bookings, visitor numbers or customer orders in Q4 2026 (October to December) to be the same or higher than the same period last year.

Undertaken by Navigator Insight in September 2026, the survey gathered responses from 81 UKinbound members from across the UK’s inbound visitor economy, including accommodation providers, attractions, destinations, transport operators, tour operators and service providers.

The survey found that 47% of businesses expect bookings, visitor numbers or customer orders to remain stable during the final quarter of the year, while 26% anticipate growth compared to Q4 2025.

Businesses reported a similarly resilient outlook for revenues, with 72% expecting yields to be the same or higher than the corresponding period last year. Of those, 40% expect yields to remain stable and 32% forecast an increase.

Looking ahead, more than half (52%) of respondents said they feel confident about bookings, visitor revenues and customer orders over the next 12 months.

The survey also highlighted differing performance across international markets. Germany showed the strongest growth trend among tracked source markets, while the US was most frequently identified as the market where businesses are currently experiencing softening demand.

Respondents also reported stronger demand for the upcoming shoulder and winter periods, as visitors seek better value by travelling outside the traditional peak season.

Joss Croft OBE, CEO of UKinbound, said “These findings reflect what we’re hearing from our members across the UK. While international demand remains resilient, businesses continue to operate in a challenging environment, with ongoing pressure on costs, margins and competitiveness.

“We currently rank 106th out of 110 destinations for price competitiveness and, with 20% VAT on hospitality, high visa costs, no tax-free shopping and the introduction of overnight visitor levies in England, the cumulative cost of a UK visit continues to rise.

“Ahead of next week’s Budget, we want to see government prioritise the competitiveness of the UK’s inbound visitor economy. As the UK’s fifth largest export industry, inbound tourism already delivers jobs, investment and economic growth in every nation and region, but we risk undermining that success if we fail to keep pace with our international competitors. The UK cannot afford to stand still.”