New Tourism Survey Reveals Fragile Outlook For Scotland’s Visitor Economy as Parties Debate Sector’s Future

A new industry survey published by the Scottish Tourism Alliance reveals a fragile outlook for Scotland’s visitor economy, with rising costs, falling visitor spend and low business confidence creating a challenging operating environment for tourism and hospitality businesses.

The findings from the 2026 Tourism and Hospitality Business Barometer, undertaken by research company 56 Degree Insight on behalf of the Scottish Tourism Alliance, were announced at the STA Signature Conference in Edinburgh today as representatives from six political parties gathered for a pre-election hustings ahead of the Scottish Parliament elections in May.

Participants included Richard Lochhead MSP (Scottish National Party), Daniel Johnson MSP (Scottish Labour), Murdo Fraser MSP (Scottish Conservatives), Willie Rennie MSP (Scottish Liberal Democrats), Graham Simpson MSP (Reform UK) and Lorna Slater MSP (Scottish Green Party).

The survey of 239 tourism and hospitality businesses across Scotland highlights growing financial pressure across the sector. While around two-thirds of businesses reported making a profit in the past financial year, the findings reveal growing financial vulnerability. More than half of businesses said they had no cash reserves or fewer than three months’ reserves.

Performance during summer 2025 was notably weaker than the previous year. Visitor spend fell by 15%, and profitability declined by 23%, despite overall turnover remaining broadly flat. Domestic visitor numbers also fell significantly, with a net year-on-year decrease of 26%.

Cost inflation continues to place substantial pressure on businesses. The majority of respondents reported higher supplier costs (86%), energy costs (82%), and staffing costs (54%) than in 2024. Fiscal and administrative costs were also significantly higher for many operators.

Looking ahead, business confidence remains subdued. More than half of respondents said their confidence for the next 12 months was low, while only around a quarter of businesses plan to invest and expand during 2026.

A number of businesses indicated they may reduce staffing levels or scale back their offer in the year ahead.

The survey also highlights deep frustration within the sector about the current policy environment. More than two-thirds of respondents viewed the recent Scottish Budget negatively, and almost four in five said they have little or no trust in elected MSPs to deliver for the sector.

Marc Crothall, Chief Executive of the Scottish Tourism Alliance, said: “Scotland’s tourism and hospitality sector is resilient, but these findings show many businesses are now operating with very limited financial headroom. Rising operating costs, alongside continued concerns around non-domestic rates revaluation, are placing significant pressure on businesses across the sector. Many operators are now forced to act defensively rather than expansively, unable to invest in their people, their product and the places that create Scotland’s world-class visitor experiences.”

“The industry does not lack ambition. The aspiration to grow is very much still there, and there is frustration that businesses are unable to unlock their potential. The STA Holyrood Election Manifesto highlights what the sector can achieve with the right policies in place – that and today’s research findings have provided the basis for today’s political party debate.”

“As Scotland approaches the next Scottish Parliament election, it is vital that tourism and hospitality are recognised as core drivers of economic growth. The sector supports hundreds of thousands of jobs and plays a crucial role in communities across Scotland.”

“The next Scottish Government must work in genuine partnership with industry to address cost pressures, reform the business rates system and create the conditions that allow businesses to invest, grow and continue delivering world-class visitor experiences.”

Jim Eccleston, Managing Partner at 56 Degree Insight and report author said:

“The study findings paint a picture of a sector that remains resilient but is operating under sustained pressure. While many tourism businesses remain profitable, declining visitor spend, rising operating costs and limited financial reserves mean the sector is increasingly fragile. As Scotland approaches the 2026 election, businesses are looking for clear action—particularly around business rates reform and reducing regulatory burdens—to restore confidence and unlock future investment.”

The survey findings were presented during the Scottish Tourism Alliance’s pre-election hustings in Edinburgh, where representatives from six political parties set out their priorities for supporting Scotland’s visitor economy in the next parliamentary term.

The Scottish Tourism Alliance has called on all parties to commit to working with industry to deliver a long-term Tourism and Hospitality Growth Plan and to recognise the sector as one of Scotland’s key economic drivers.