Spiralling Food Inflation Hitting Autumn Menu Planning

The high level of food inflation, which is causing significant challenges for out-of-home operators, is set to continue across the autumn and into the peak festive trading period, warns hospitality purchasing specialist Lynx Purchasing.

Spiralling prices on a range of food and drink staples are adding to the higher costs already facing the sector in areas such as wages and NI contributions. The warning comes as Lynx Purchasing publishes the Autumn 2025 edition of its regular Market Forecast.

“While the official ONS inflation rate is currently 3.8%, which is a challenge in itself, at 4.2% food inflation is significantly higher,” says Rachel Dobson, managing director of Lynx Purchasing. “With a higher rate of food price increases forecast to continue well into 2026, operators planning autumn menus, as well as trying to secure advance festive bookings, are walking a tightrope.

“Consumer confidence is fragile, making it hard to increase menu prices, but at the same time, food inflation quickly erodes operators’ margins, unless they can either save on purchasing costs, or pass at least some of the increase onto customers via higher menu prices.

“In addition, the impact of the extreme weather across the summer, from wildfires in Europe to water shortages for UK farmers, will be felt in produce prices for some months to come,”

The Market Forecast uses exclusive insight supplied by the range of suppliers that Lynx works with, as well as official inflation data, to look at food and drink pricing across the coming months. Areas flagged up in the Autumn 2025 Lynx Purchasing Market Forecast include:

• Beef: UK cattle farmers remain reluctant to expand production due to very high rearing costs. As a result, beef prices are expected to rise further across the autumn, as retailers compete for the available supplies. This leaves hospitality operators in the challenging position of dealing with higher prices and lower availability as the peak season approaches.
• Chicken: While prices have been more stable recently, costs are rising in line with the general food inflation trend, and poultry supplies remain vulnerable to avian flu, as well as higher feed costs.

• Produce: Suppliers are warning that the effects of extreme weather across the summer will impact price and availability for some time. Broccoli and cauliflower are already in short supply, while the combination of the heatwave and hosepipe bans made it harder to plant UK winter crops of a range of produce, including potatoes, parsnips and carrots, Furter afield, European production of salad crops such as tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers and lettuce has been restricted by widespread wildfires.
• Dairy: Dairy prices have been high for much of this year, and producers have warned that higher costs in areas such as cattle feed, as well as a shortage of labour, will continue to have an impact. Butter has seen sharp price increases, and the challenges also affect prices of manufactured products which use dairy, as well as cheese.

In contrast, there is more positive news in some menu areas:

• Fish & Seafood: Cooler waters in autumn create good conditions for a wide range of fish and seafood, with species including mackerel, coley, plaice, lemon sole and mussels from UK waters expected to be good value.
• Potatoes: Despite concerns about the impact of the hot summer, suppliers are reporting that the UK crop is good in terms of quality and yield, which should keep prices at reasonable levels across the autumn and winter. Higher European production should also mean processed potato products will be better value.

Dobson adds: “Operators who can keep menus flexible and work with suppliers with suppliers to make then most of changing availability are best places to mitigate the impact of high levels of food inflation.

“Using specials boards to feature better value cuts of meat, or less familiar fish varieties, can boost margins and appeal to customers looking for something different when they eat out. Many varieties of UK grown fruit and veg, such as kale, chard, parsnips and pears, did well despite the hot weather, and offer good value and availability.”

Dobson adds: “When it comes to planning festive menus and trying to secure bookings, the best advice is for operators to talk to suppliers abouts availability and plan accordingly. For example, farmed smoked trout can be better value on a set menu than smoked salmon, without affecting customer perceptions of menu quality,”