Steady Q4 Trading Expected Across UK’s Inbound Visitor Economy
UKinbound has released its latest Business Barometer results, showing that businesses across the UK’s inbound visitor economy are reporting stable trading conditions heading into the final quarter of 2025, with performance expected to remain broadly in line with 2024 levels.
The survey, conducted by Qa Research in September 2025, asked members to assess anticipated business for October, November and December 2025 compared with the same period in 2024, as well as to reflect on performance during summer 2025 and their outlook for 2026.
Bookings and Revenue
40% of respondents said bookings/visitor numbers for Q4 2025 are expected to be about the same as Q4 2024, and 31% said they are due to be higher. Meanwhile, 40% and 35% anticipate revenues to remain stable or increase respectively. On average, businesses forecasting growth expect bookings/visitor numbers to rise by 16% and revenue by 14%.
Looking back to the summer, 50% of respondents met their forecasts and 20% exceeded them, with several citing stronger-than-expected visitor numbers and a higher volume of last-minute bookings. However, some noted a slowdown in US demand and softer domestic visitor levels.
Market Performance
The USA and China continue to be the most frequently cited growth markets, although performance across Europe remains mixed, with some declines recorded in Germany, France and Canada.
Over half of respondents indicated growth from at least one overseas market, but a similar proportion also recorded declines elsewhere, reflecting uneven performance across key source regions.
Industry Outlook for 2026
Almost half (48%) of businesses expect to meet their 2025 performance next year, while two-in-five (40%) expect to exceed this year’s performance, supported by early group bookings and sustained demand from long-haul markets.
Respondents identified rising costs, uncertainty in the US market and geopolitical instability as the main factors shaping expectations for 2026.
Joss Croft OBE, CEO of UKinbound, said:
“We hear that domestic tourism has been a real challenge this year, so it’s encouraging to see many of our members reporting stable trading and pockets of growth heading into the final quarter of the year. Demand from long-haul markets such as the US and China remain strong, and early signs for 2026 bookings suggest that international appetite for visiting the UK continues to build.
“Our members are working hard to convert this demand into real economic growth for destinations right across the country, but to fully unlock the sector’s potential, we need a policy environment that helps businesses invest, compete and grow with confidence.”