Editor’s Viewpoint: Growth Claims Ring Hollow for Hospitality

By Peter Adams, Editor, CLH News.

I’ll be the first to admit—I’m no economist. But when official statistics trumpet economic growth, I find myself asking: where exactly is this growth manifesting?

Because from where I sit, observing the hospitality and licensed trade sectors, the picture looks decidedly different.

The evidence before us tells a sobering story. Since October, our industry has shed 84,000 jobs and witnessed 1,100 pub and restaurant closures.

These aren’t merely statistics—they represent livelihoods lost and communities diminished.

Living in Bournemouth town centre, I’ve watched this decline firsthand: department stores shuttering, independent retailers disappearing, once-bustling high streets growing quiet. If this is growth, it’s certainly taken an unusual form.

Perhaps the disconnect lies in how we measure economic success.

While headline figures may suggest progress, the hospitality sector—the UK’s third-largest employer—tells a different story. The disconnect between macro-economic data and micro-economic reality has never felt starker.

Professor Joe Nellis from MHA puts it bluntly:
“Lower consumer spending can slow business revenues, discourage investment, and ultimately dampen economic growth. If this persists, it can lead to weaker job creation and a risk of recession, as the economy relies heavily on household consumption to drive activity.”

This observation strikes at the heart of our sector’s challenges. Hospitality depends on discretionary spending, and when consumers tighten their belts, we feel it first and hardest.

Professor Nellis warns that “sluggish economic growth means that tax revenues will not reach the levels that the Government needs,” potentially forcing Chancellor Rachel Reeves into further tax rises this autumn.

The mathematics seem elementary: you cannot tax your way to growth or borrow your way out of debt.

Yet this appears to be the prevailing strategy. Imagine the additional tax revenue flowing into Treasury coffers if those 84,000 hospitality jobs remained and those 1,100 hospitality had venues stayed open, contributing to both employment and the exchequer.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom. The upcoming football season and Women’s World Cup offer genuine reasons for a little bit of optimism.

England enters as strong favourites, and the numbers from 2023’s tournament are encouraging. Nearly two-thirds of consumers watched matches—just 7% fewer than the men’s competition the previous year, according to CGA by NIQ data.

More significantly for our sector, England’s knockout matches drove substantial increases in drinks sales, particularly long alcoholic drinks and soft drinks.

The Women’s World Cup final alone generated a 33% boost in drink sales, with UKHospitality reporting a 10% increase compared to the previous week.

These events remind us of hospitality’s unique role in bringing communities together, creating shared experiences that extend far beyond mere transaction.

So while the economic headwinds remain challenging, and the gap between official growth figures and sector reality persists, there are opportunities ahead. The question is whether policymakers will recognise hospitality’s contribution to both economic and social fabric—and support it accordingly.

Perhaps that’s where real growth might begin!

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