Flat November Sales Deepen Hospitality’s Challenges After Budget Blows
Britain’s leading managed hospitality groups enter the crucial Christmas period on the back of flat sales in November, the latest NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker reveals.
Like-for-like trading was just 0.3% ahead of the same month in 2024, following increases of just 0.1% in October and 0.2% in September. Growth has now been below 1% or negative since April.
Amid a soft November for hospitality, the government’s Budget brought further challenges, including a phase-out of rates relief, confirmation of extra labour costs and weak economic forecasts. It leaves businesses anxious for a surge in spending over the festive season.
Modest growth for pubs but restaurants slip again
The Hospitality Business Tracker—produced by NIQ, powered by CGA intelligence, in association with RSM—shows a positive November for pubs, where sales rose 2.5% year-on-year. It is a tenth consecutive month of growth for the pub sector, though most increases have been below the rate of inflation.
In sharp contrast, sales at restaurants were 2.1% short of November 2024. This means trading has been negative in ten of the last 11 months, and that restaurants have been outperformed by pubs in every month of 2025 so far.
Among other hospitality sectors, bars recorded a 5.2% dip in sales. It extends a difficult year for the channel, with trading behind by between 4% and 10% year-on-year in every month.
Higher prices, openings fuel total growth
With footfall down across hospitality, modest growth is being driven by higher menu prices and new openings by some of the sector’s better-performing operators. On a total sales basis—including at venues opened by groups in the last 12 months—sales were 3.1% ahead of November 2024. However, long-term confidence about sales and openings is weak, and the latest Business Confidence Survey from NIQ and Sona found that just 26% of leaders feel optimistic about prospects for their business over the next 12 months.
London beats regions for fourth month in a row
The NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker’s breakdown of sales indicates that London delivered slightly better growth for hospitality operators than the rest of Britain in November. Like-for-like sales within the M25 were 0.7% ahead year-on-year, compared to 0.2% in regions beyond the M25. It is the third month in a row that the capital has been marginally ahead of the country as a whole.
Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, said: “November’s results continue a disappointing trend of lacklustre performance as consumer uncertainty in the run up to the budget hampered the industry’s recovery, despite falling interest rates and high levels of household saving in 2025. RSM’s latest Consumer Outlook found that the majority of consumers would rather spend a surprise windfall on paying down debts or saving for the future rather than enjoying an experience, highlighting the challenge operators face in getting customers through the door. As the busiest period of trade for the sector, all will be hoping that promising festive booking data translates into a measurable uptick in spending.”
Karl Chessell, director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA at NIQ, said: “Soft trading and high costs have been a potent combination for hospitality operators, and November’s figures extend a very difficult 2025. Reasonable growth for pubs suggests consumers remain willing to go out to drink, while a steady stream of new openings shows some operators and investors are on the front foot. But another negative month for restaurants and bars is cause for major concern, especially in light of yet more additions to their burdens of costs in the Budget. The sector will now be pinning hopes on a surge in Christmas sales to boost depleted coffers ahead of 2026.”