Rising Costs Force Independent Operators Out as Group Chains Dominate UK Hospitality Market
The number of full-service restaurants is set to decline 1% in 2025 as limited disposable incomes continues to impact visitor numbers. According to the latest insights from IGD’s new Away From Home (AFH) service, premium dining is likely to fare better than casual restaurants, as wealthier consumers continue to spend. Meanwhile, insights show that independents will struggle to shoulder rising costs, making way for more group operators.
Indies that effectively communicate their unique offerings and engage with changing consumer trends will likely perform better against a tough backdrop.
IGD also outlined opportunities for all operators, who should look to promote special occasions as well as drive efficiencies. At the same time, suppliers should seek ways to build stronger relationships with customers to drive loyalty.
These insights are part of IGD’s new AFH proposition, which kicks off with the launch of the AFH five-year market forecast for 2025-2030. The new service has been developed in recognition of the need for a whole-market viewpoint of the AFH sector and marks a significant milestone for IGD as its first new insight product for 15 years.
AFH accounts for over a third of the total UK food & drink market, up 2.5% in the year to April, worth £102.3bn.
The IGD forecast projects a CAGR of 4.8% from 2025 to 2030 to reach £123.3bn, driven primarily by inflation and steady population growth. However, in real terms, market value is not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels within the forecast period, highlighting the continued economic pressures facing both consumers and operators.
Nicola Knight, Head of Away From Home at IGD, said:
“We listened to what the industry needed and built a flexible, client-centric solution that does the heavy lifting of insight and reflects the full AFH market. Our AFH data models have been developed over time to fill the gaps left by the absence of consolidated industry data, offering a credible and consistent view of market size.”
Nicola continues: “This service is built around offering strategic foresight. We don’t just report on the market, we help you see what’s next. With five-year market forecasts, global research, and analysts who visit over 40 countries annually, we bring future trends to life. Our insights support long-term planning, innovation, and a clearer vision for growth in the ever-evolving AFH channel.”
Kate Nicholls, Chief Executive of UKHospitality, said:
“The new Away From Home market forecasts from IGD provides a comprehensive overview of the dynamic hospitality market and consumer behaviour, both now and into the future. These valuable insights are crucial for informing our work across hospitality, helping operators to plan effectively for the future and supporting our work with Government on behalf of the sector.”