UK Diners Swap Restaurants for Coffee Shops as Cost Pressures Bite, New Data Shows

British consumers are increasingly deserting full-service restaurants in favour of coffee shops and food-to-go outlets, according to new spending analysis from data specialist CACI.

The research, which examined six months of transaction data comparing the first half of 2026 with the same period last year, found that restaurants were the only major food and beverage category to see spending fall year-on-year, dropping by 3%.

Cafés and coffee shops, meanwhile, saw spending climb by 5%, while food-to-go outlets posted growth of 2%.

CACI said the figures point not to consumers giving up on eating out altogether, but to a more selective approach to where they choose to spend their money.

Fewer visits, not lower spend

Although average transaction values at restaurants rose by 2% year-on-year, broadly tracking inflation, the overall fall in spend suggests fewer people are actually walking through restaurant doors.
Coffee shops have emerged as clear winners from the shift. Newer entrants outpaced the wider market by some distance, with Grind up 17% and Blank Street up 13%. Established chains also performed well, with Starbucks growing 6% and Costa 4%.

The food-to-go sector told a more varied story. Expansion-minded brands such as Wingstop, Farmer J and Atis all recorded strong growth, while longer-established high street names including KFC, Itsu, Tortilla and Papa Johns saw sales decline.

CACI noted particularly fierce competition within the fried chicken sector, where growing operators like Wingstop appear to be taking market share directly from rivals. The analysts expect this pressure to intensify further with the imminent UK launch of US chain Raising Cane’s.

Less affluent households driving the change

Perhaps the most striking finding relates to who is behind the shift. Rather than a regional pattern, CACI’s demographic breakdown points to an affluence-led change in behaviour, with the biggest increases in spend per visit coming from lower-income consumer groups.

Within CACI’s “Low Income Living” Acorn classification, average transaction values at cafés and coffee shops rose by 5.2% year-on-year — the largest increase recorded across any demographic segment. Both the “Low Income Living” and “Stretched Society” groups also posted 6% growth in food-to-go spend per transaction and 2.8% growth in pubs and bars, outperforming all other groups on this measure.

The data suggests many diners on tighter budgets are not cutting back on eating out entirely, but are instead trading down to better-quality café or food-to-go options in place of a traditional restaurant meal.

“An opportunity, not a crisis”

Martha Dobbs, senior consultant at CACI, said the findings reflect a broader, affordability-driven reshaping of how and where the nation eats and drinks, with less affluent consumers leading a reallocation of spending rather than an outright retreat from eating out.
Dobbs argued the picture need not be bleak for restaurant operators, describing the trend instead as a chance for the sector to rethink how it demonstrates value to increasingly cost-conscious customers.

She pointed to Pizza Express’s new quick-service format, which opened in Brixton this spring, as an example of how established restaurant brands can adapt their offer to changing consumer habits.

Ultimately, Dobbs suggested, restaurants’ strongest card remains the quality of the dining experience itself — and operators that lean into that experiential edge may be best placed to win back customers who have traded down.