UK Eating Out Market Forecast to Reach £102.8bn in 2026 as Branded Operators Outperform

The UK eating out market is forecast to reach £102.8bn in value in 2026, representing +1.8% growth year on year, according to the latest Lumina Intelligence’s Market Sizing.
While overall outlet numbers are expected to remain flat, the data shows continued structural change across the market, with growth increasingly concentrated among larger, branded and differentiated operators.

Weaker sites are exiting across multiple channels, driving a consolidation of spend rather than broad based expansion.

The QSR sector is forecast to outperform the wider market, reaching £17.9bn (+1.7%), supported by its value led positioning as consumers continue to moderate discretionary spend. Coffee, bakery and sandwich formats are also set to deliver above market growth, with premium and scale brands benefiting from everyday usage and targeted estate expansion.

By contrast, service led restaurants, pubs and bars are showing modest revenue growth despite declining outlet numbers, highlighting increasing sales concentration among stronger operators.

Across all channels, Lumina Intelligence’s Operator Data Index notes a clear shift towards selective, format led expansion, with operators prioritising operational efficiency, value perception and clear customer propositions.