Lumina Intelligence has launched the UK Food to Go Market Report 2025, revealing that the sector is forecast to grow +3.3% to reach a value of £24bn in 2025. This growth is set to outpace the total eating out market and inflation, reinforcing the resilience and dynamism of food to go as a dominant force in the UK’s hospitality sector.
As food to go strengthens its foothold, its share of the total eating out market is expected to climb to 23.6%, an increase of +0.6 percentage points from 2019. Investment from fast food operators, convenience stores, and sandwich and bakery chains has been instrumental in driving growth, capitalising on the UK’s continued demand for high-quality, convenient meal options.
Affluent Millennials Lead the Charge as Spending Polarises
The report highlights an emerging polarisation in consumer spending power, with the highest earners driving growth. Food to go penetration growth from 2023-2024 has been dominated by those earning over £50,000, with affluent millennials in management roles in London leading the charge. A notable factor behind this trend is the continued return to office-based working, which has bolstered weekday food to go occasions, particularly at lunchtime. There are opportunities for operators to increase transaction values through targeting these consumers with elevated propositions.
The lunchtime day-part has experienced the most notable increase in share of occasions, rising +1.0 percentage point to 32.2%, with solo missions on Mondays and Wednesdays proving to be key drivers of this uplift.
Innovation and Expansion Power Market Leaders
The UK’s leading food to go players have expanded market share beyond pre-pandemic levels, leveraging investment in store layouts, product innovation, and diversified formats. Convenience stores, sandwich & bakery outlets, and coffee shop chains are all projected to increase their share of the food to go sector between 2019 and 2028.
The market is also poised for a period of sustained expansion, with total outlet numbers forecast to rise +1.2% to 155,711 locations, driven by operators rolling out new store formats in both urban and suburban locations. Aligning product ranges with evolving consumer tastes, including premiumisation and health-conscious offerings, has been a cornerstone of success for these key players.
Quality and Health Propel Consumer Choices
A heightened consumer focus on elevated classics and functional health presents a lucrative opportunity for food to go operators. Demand for premium sandwiches and functional ingredients – including lion’s mane mushroom in drinks and meals – is rising as consumers seek accessible ways to boost their health.
Year-on-year, the share of consumers who identify as very quality-led and very health-conscious has continued to increase beyond 2022 levels, indicating a long-term shift in purchasing behaviour.
Future Outlook: A £26bn Market by 2028
Looking ahead, easing economic tailwinds and sustained consumer appetite for food to go are expected to drive market value to £26bn by 2028. The forecast size of the prize for leading operators from 2025 to 2028 stands at £2.1bn, underscoring the potential for brands that invest in their operations and innovation pipelines.
However, in order to fully realise growth opportunities and counterbalance rising costs, operators will need to strategically invest in technology and automation, as service automation success rates remain mixed across the sector.