Flat September For Hospitality Sales But Pub Trends Positive As Crucial Final Quarter Starts
Britain’s top managed restaurant, pub and bar groups delivered like-for-like sales growth of 0.2% in September, according to the latest CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker.
It is a second period of fractional growth in a row, after a 0.5% increase in August, and only the fourth positive month since the start of 2025. The figures show many consumers remain cautious with their spending ahead of the run-up to Christmas and New Year.
Total sales and confidence rise
However, there are grounds for cautious optimism as the festive season nears. Total sales—including at venues opened by groups in the last 12 months—were up by 3.4%, which is only marginally below the UK’s current rate of inflation. It indicates that operators and investors remain bullish about the long-term future of hospitality.
This echoes news from the latest Business Confidence Survey from CGA by NIQ and Sona that the number of sector leaders feeling optimistic about the prospects for their business over the next 12 months rose from 34% to 41% between the first and second quarters of 2025. Meanwhile, the Hospitality Market Monitor from CGA by NIQ indicates stability in Britain’s number of licensed premises after a sustained run of post-COVID closures.
Pubs shine but restaurants drop
The latest Hospitality Business Tracker, produced by CGA by NIQ in association with RSM, also highlights positive trends in Britain’s managed pub sector. Like-for-like pub sales in September were 1.9% ahead of the same month in 2024, while restaurants were down by 0.7%.
It means pubs have outperformed the hospitality sector as a whole in every month of 2025 so far—partly because some consumers are opting for drinks out rather than meals. Pubs’ beer and cider sales were also boosted by dry and bright weather in many parts of the country in September, as well as the start of university terms, which sent students out to pubs and bars in many towns and cities.
In other Tracker segments, bars’ sales were down by 6.8% from September 2024, while the on-the-go segment was 3.7% behind.
London outperforms Britain
For only the third month this year, hospitality operators achieved stronger growth in London than elsewhere in the country. Like-for-like sales within the M25 were 0.7% ahead year-on-year, compared to 0.1% outside of the M25. London’s modest revival may reflect the steady return of office workers to the capital after a sustained period of working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, which has boosted lunchtime food and after-work drinks sales in particular.
Final-quarter outlook
Since the end of September, trading in many parts of the country has been weakened by Storm Amy. Leaders’ optimism is also being tempered by the Chancellor’s Budget, which is due on 26 November. The hospitality sector has been lobbying for relief on tax, labour and other costs, which have squeezed operators’ margins throughout 2025.
Karl Chessell, director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA at CGA by NIQ, said:
“September’s sales were nothing to write home about, but they do at least represent stability after a turbulent year for hospitality. Conditions are currently significantly better for pub groups, which can look ahead to Christmas and New Year trading with some confidence, but restaurant and bar trends give more cause for concern. Whatever their sector, business leaders and investors will be able to look forward with much more confidence if they get the targeted and sustained support they deserve in the November Budget.”
Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, said:
“September’s results tell a very similar story to August, with reasonable headline revenue growth for the sector but flat like-for-likes. Recent trends in the hospitality industry are becoming increasingly baked in, with pubs benefiting from consumers trading down amid weak confidence, while independent and casual dining brands suffer as a consequence. With a long wait for clarity in November’s budget, both consumers and operators are in a holding pattern, which could threaten to jeopardise the all-important Christmas trading period.”