Hot Weather Fails to Lift UK On Trade as Outlet Numbers Fall and Spend Slows

New data from The Oxford Partnership’s Market Watch, in collaboration with Vianet, shows the UK On Trade closed July on a weak note, with falling outlet numbers, slowing consumer spend and declining draught volumes, despite warm summer weather.

Licensed outlet numbers dropped by almost 1% compared to July 2024, with London experiencing closure rates double the national average. Operators are facing a combination of rising National Insurance contributions, reduced business rate relief, and higher minimum wage costs. These pressures come as inflation and high interest rates continue to restrict consumer spending power.

Footfall across the On Trade remained broadly flat over the past month, but dwell times rose 13% year-on-year, indicating that customers are visiting less often but staying longer when they do. In Yorkshire, dwell time increased 18% despite a small drop in footfall. This shift suggests consumers are consolidating their social occasions and potentially focusing spend into fewer visits.

Average spend growth per head is slowing sharply. Year-to-date drinks growth eased to +3.9% and food to +5.0%. In the latest 12 weeks, drinks spend slowed to +1.8% and food to +1.9%, both well below the 3.6% Consumer Prices Index. This means pubs and restaurants are seeing a real-terms decline in spend per customer.

Draught beer and cider volumes are also under pressure, down -2.4% year-to-date, with sharper declines in recent weeks. London remains the weakest region, down -6.4% in the latest 4 weeks. Earlier summer gains in rural areas have now reversed, while suburban and urban venues remain in decline.

Mainstream lager categories have been hardest hit. In the latest 4 weeks, Core Lager fell -8.9% and World 4% Lager -9.3%. Premium Lager growth slowed to +1.4%, and cider volumes also weakened slightly.

Alison Jordan, CEO of The Oxford Partnership, said:”The data shows the sector is under sustained pressure. Even with hot weather, trading momentum failed to materialise, and the combination of rising costs, slowing spend, and declining volumes is creating one of the toughest mid-summer trading environments we have seen in years. Operators will need to focus on converting longer customer visits into higher spend to offset these headwinds.”