Spring Boost Lifts UK Hospitality, But Full Recovery Still Out of Reach
New data from The Oxford Partnership reveals that the UK On Trade showed clear signs of recovery in March, with stronger demand, longer visits, and record spend per head. However, despite this positive momentum, overall volumes remain below last year, highlighting a continued gap between consumer engagement and actual consumption.
March marked a step forward for the sector, with venues benefiting from seasonal tailwinds including improved weather and major sporting occasions such as the Six Nations. Average occupancy rose to 65.4% (+1.1ppt year on year), while dwell time increased to 153 minutes (+3.4%), indicating that consumers are returning to pubs and bars and staying longer.
Spend per head reached a new high of £26.91, continuing a steady upward trend driven primarily by food-led occasions. While drink spend also increased, the data suggests that consumers are prioritising experience and duration over drinking intensity.
Total volumes rose +9.9% versus February, signalling improving demand as the market moves beyond the post-Christmas slowdown. However, volumes remain down -2.0% year on year, underlining that recovery is gradual rather than complete.
Category performance continues to be uneven. Stout remains the standout performer, growing +7.1% on a moving annual basis, while World Lager also shows resilience. In contrast, Core Lager, Premium 4% Lager, Craft and Ale remain under pressure, reflecting ongoing shifts in consumer behaviour.
Despite improving demand, operators continue to face significant cost pressures, including wages, utilities and input costs, which are limiting margin recovery.
Alison Jordan, CEO of The Oxford Partnership, said: “What we are seeing is a market that is clearly improving, but not yet fully recovered. Consumers are coming back, they are staying longer and spending more, but they are drinking differently. Value is now being created through longer, more experience-led occasions rather than higher consumption. The key challenge for the sector is converting this strong engagement into sustainable volume growth as we move into the summer months.”
The data highlights a critical shift in the On Trade: while engagement metrics are strengthening, drinking intensity continues to lag. This evolving consumer behaviour suggests that the current pattern of ‘spend up, volume down’ may persist, shaping how operators and suppliers approach growth in 2026.