Spending Falls -0.1 Per Cent In April After 18 Months Of Growth, But Consumers Show Resilience Amid Ongoing Uncertainty

Consumer card spending declined -0.1 per cent year-on-year in April – the first fall since November 2024 (-0.5 per cent) and below the latest CPIH inflation rate of 3.4 per cent. Non-essential spending declined (-0.3 per cent), after a 1.1 per cent increase in March, but essential spend grew 0.3 per cent, as fuel surged 10.4 per cent – its greatest rise since December 2022.

Confidence in the global economy fell to 20 per cent last month – its lowest level since April 2025, when Trump announced ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs. Confidence in the UK economy, however, recovered marginally to 22 per cent (from 21 per cent in March).

Consumers’ confidence in their household finances and job security both remained largely on par with March, dipping by one percentage point to 64 per cent and 43 per cent respectively. Confidence in non-essential spending dropped to 49 per cent, its lowest level since March 2023 (48 per cent).

Almost seven in 10 (72 per cent) say they expect tensions in the Middle East to impact the cost of living throughout 2026, with energy bills (85 per cent), inflation (84 per cent) and food prices (84 per cent) the greatest causes for concern.

However, the majority remain resilient; 52 per cent feel able to manage their day-to-day finances without significant stress and the same proportion feel confident in their ability to make good financial decisions in uncertain times.

Three in five (62 per cent) report making financial adjustments in response to current uncertainty. Of this group, the most cited actions are cutting discretionary spending (45 per cent), limiting energy usage at home (43 per cent) and delaying major financial decisions (26 per cent). A further 34 per cent report reviewing their household budget, while 51 per cent say they are trying to build a precautionary savings buffer in case of future cost increases.

Travel spending stalls
Travel spending declined -5.7 per cent in April, after a -3.3 per cent fall in March, with airlines down -8.3 per cent. This comes as consumers cite concerns about travel costs (70 per cent), and travel disruption (62 per cent) in light of the Middle East conflict. One in six (16 per cent) say they’re putting off holiday decisions until they feel the outlook has stabilised.

However, 13 per cent say despite cost pressures, they’re still prioritising travel/holidays this year. One in five (19 per cent) are planning a “staycation”, with saving money (43 per cent), reducing the risk of uncertainty (35 per cent), and avoiding air travel (24 per cent) contributing to their decision.

Spending on eating and drinking flatlined in April, at 0.2 per cent, however the London Marathon contributed to a welcome lift for the Capital, with pub transactions up 35.5 per cent week-on-week on Sunday 26th April, and food & drink transactions up 22.5 per cent.

This comes as 55 per cent of Londoners say they are in favour of a two-day marathon in 2027, with 53 per cent agreeing it would provide London and its businesses with a boost.

Jack Meaning, Chief UK Economist at Barclays, said: “This data shows consumers are already adapting in response to the shock from the Middle East, for instance, by building up a savings buffer. With uncertainty high both at home and abroad, it is unsurprising to see confidence falling. The key unknown for the UK outlook is how long this uncertainty will last. If confidence remains subdued for too long, and consumers continue to limit their spending as a result, it will be a challenge for households and businesses to weather the storm.”

Karen Johnson, Head of Retail at Barclays, said: “In April, we saw consumers taking precautionary action in response to renewed cost-of-living concerns – cutting non-essential spending, building their savings and looking for ways to reduce their outgoings. There’s no doubt people will continue to pay close attention to their budget amid ongoing uncertainty, however it’s reassuring to see that the majority feel confident in their ability to manage their day-to-day spending and to make sound financial decisions.”