Summer Price Spike Threat to Key Menu Items, warns Lynx Purchasing

Hospitality operators face further pressure on profits this summer, with inflation expected to drive up prices on a range of core menu products, warns purchasing specialist Lynx Purchasing.

With staple products such as meat, potatoes and dairy already recording price increases significantly ahead of the headline rate of inflation, operators face the dilemma of whether to raise menu prices for customers already feeling the pinch or try to absorb the increases.

The warning comes as Lynx Purchasing publishes the Summer 2025 edition of its regular Market Forecast, using exclusive insight supplied by the range of suppliers that Lynx works with, as well as official inflation data, to look at food and drink pricing across the summer trading period.

“Hospitality businesses are already dealing with increased costs in areas such as staffing and business rates,” said Rachel Dobson, managing director of Lynx Purchasing. “Their ability to absorb further cost increases is limited, but at the same time, consumer confidence is very fragile.

“Although the headline rate of inflation is relatively low, it’s forecast to increase across the summer, and at the same time there are a number of products where prices are rising at higher rates.”

Areas flagged up for concern in the Summer 2025 Lynx Purchasing Market Forecast include:

Meat: Beef prices have been rising in the UK and across Europe since the start of the year, driven by lower production and continued high demand. Pork is also seeing price increases, with demand running ahead of producers’ ability to increase capacity Suppliers are advising that further increases should be expected for pork and beef products across the summer.
Poultry: Higher prices for both fresh chicken and pre-made chicken products, such as wings and burgers, are forecast for at least the next few months. British poultry producers are calling for a relaxation of planning rules which limit expansion, while the continued impact of restrictions aimed at reducing the spread of avian is affecting the market globally.
Potatoes: Potato prices have continued to increase, in the aftermath of extreme weather impacting both availability and quality of last year’s crop. Operators who can use a broader range of varieties, without worrying too much about size and appearance, will be in the best position to make the most of available supplies.
Dairy: There was a sharp increase in the price of butter in March, with supply once again affected by demand running ahead of the time needed to expand herd size, Cheese also saw prices increase, which is likely to continue across the summer, while egg supplies are seeing shortages due to avian flu.
“Clearly, there are some costs that operators can’t control,” added Dobson, “However there are definitely areas where it is possible to make savings, A disciplined approach to purchasing has never been more important, and operators need to work more closely with suppliers to ensure they are making the most of produce when it’s at its best in terms of value, quality and availability.

“Purchasing discipline doesn’t stop at the point of delivery. Managing food waste in the kitchen and throughout the business can have a dramatic impact on costs. All too often, plates that are piled high with food when they’re sent out to the customer, come back with food left on them, which has to be thrown away.

“This waste is not just costly in terms of the money that was spent to buy the food, it increasingly carries a cost in terms of disposal. Most businesses are now required to separate food waste for collection. This has already been an eye-opener for many businesses, prompting them to look again at the amount to food that is simply thrown away.”

A FREE copy of the Summer 2025 Lynx Purchasing Market Forecast can be downloaded from the website at www.lynxpurchasing.co.uk. A FREE guide, The Seven Habits of Highly Effective Purchasing Teams, is also available on the site.