UK Eating Out Market Set to Surpass £100 Billion in 2025, Reveals Lumina Intelligence

The UK eating out market is forecast to reach a value of £101 billion in 2025, according to Lumina Intelligence’s newly released Eating Out Market Report 2025. This represents a year-on-year growth of +2.6%, led predominantly by high-income households and concentrated in affluent urban areas, particularly London.

While this marks a positive trajectory, continued inflationary pressures, tight fiscal policy and rising employer costs are expected to constrain consumer and business expenditure in the near term.

The market is increasingly bifurcated, with growth largely driven by segments such as retail, travel & leisure, and contract catering.

Quick service restaurants (QSRs), buoyed by their flexible site formats, tech integration and lower reliance on labour-intensive service, are proving more adaptable to rising costs. In contrast, service-led restaurants and pubs face headwinds from escalating staffing costs and volatile inflation.

Despite the challenging backdrop, operators are recalibrating. The report highlights a wave of portfolio rationalisation and operational streamlining among both established and growth-oriented brands. There is a notable uptick in data-led expansion, menu innovation, and technological adoption—including AI—as operators seek to future-proof their estates.

These factors are contributing to sustained interest from global investors and private equity, with M&A activity particularly strong in the restaurant and QSR domains.

Consumer behaviour continues to evolve, with value for money cited by 76% as a key driver, closely followed by quality (75%) and health consciousness (44%). Operators are responding with offers that deliver added value through elevated classics, immediate rewards, and premiumised products—trends especially evident in sectors like contract catering, sandwich and bakery chains, and coffee shops.

Looking beyond 2025, the market is projected to grow at a steady +2.4% CAGR, reaching approximately £108.7 billion by 2028. As inflation and economic uncertainty persist, long-term growth will hinge on strategic investments in automation, diversified experiences, and innovative formats that provide consumers with compelling reasons to dine out.