Weight-Loss Drug Boom Adds to Pressures Facing Scotland’s Pubs and Restaurants, Trade Body Warns
Scotland’s licensed hospitality sector is contending with a fresh headwind as the growing popularity of weight-loss medications appears to be denting footfall in pubs, bars and restaurants, according to new research from the Scottish Licensed Trade Association (SLTA).
The trade body’s latest on-trade market insight report, based on responses from around 300 pubs, bars, restaurants and hotels, found that 16% of operators had noticed a drop in visits which they linked directly to the rise in fat-loss treatments such as GLP-1 injections. A further 22% said their customers were behaving more “discerningly” when eating and drinking out, a shift they also attributed to the medications’ growing use.
The findings sit alongside a broader picture of a sector still under strain. Despite this, the report points to some tentative signs of improvement. Two-thirds of operators said the men’s football World Cup had given trade a lift over the summer, although the same could not be said of the Commonwealth Games, held in Glasgow, which the report describes as having made no discernible difference to sales in pubs and bars.
Overall, 58% of businesses surveyed described their trading position as being in decline. Even so, optimism has ticked up compared with the association’s winter survey: 71% of respondents now expect to break even or turn a profit, up from 63% previously, while 61% are forecasting growth or stability for the remainder of 2026. The proportion of operators who said they were weighing up closure also fell, down nine percentage points on the earlier survey.
Costs remain the dominant concern
Rising costs continue to be the single biggest issue for operators, with 97% of those surveyed reporting cost increases over the period and more than half — 57% — saying those increases had outstripped inflation by some margin.
SLTA managing director Colin Wilkinson said the World Cup had provided only a short-term boost against a difficult wider backdrop. “The World Cup provided a brief sales boost, but the broader economic outlook remains challenging,” he said, adding that members were reporting subdued consumer confidence as continuing global uncertainty weighs on spending decisions.
Wilkinson also pointed to the emergence of the weight-loss drug trend as a new factor operators now have to reckon with, noting that changing customer habits linked to the medications were beginning to show up clearly in the data.
Calls for rates reform and VAT cut
Beyond the immediate trading picture, Wilkinson used the report to renew pressure on both the Scottish and UK governments over the cost of doing business. He argued that Scottish hospitality operators face steeper commercial rates and energy costs than counterparts elsewhere in the UK, and said profitability worries meant tax and rates reform needed to move up the political agenda in both Edinburgh and Westminster.
He called for the Scottish Parliament to prioritise early reform of business rates, and for the UK government to cut VAT for hospitality businesses — pointing to Ireland’s reduced rate for the sector as a model the UK could follow. He also urged First Minister John Swinney to throw his support behind the industry-led “VAT’s the Problem” campaign, which is lobbying Westminster to cut VAT for hospitality to 10%.
“Business profitability remains a major concern, so we urge all parties within the Scottish parliament to place early rates reform, and within the Westminster parliament a reduction in VAT for the licensed hospitality sector, truly at the heart of their economic strategies,” Wilkinson said. “Both governments have recently stated again that one of their core priorities is growing the economy. Well, the time is now — no more just ‘talk the talk’, it’s time to ‘walk the walk’.”
He added that the SLTA wants Scottish ministers to accelerate their review of how commercial rates are calculated for licensed hospitality premises, and to work more closely with the trade in doing so.
The report also flagged concerns over the future skills and staffing pipeline for the sector, with operators calling for greater support for apprenticeship schemes to help address recruitment challenges.
Treasury response
Responding to the calls for a VAT cut, a Treasury spokesperson said: “The chancellor is fully focused on his priorities, to give families and businesses a bit of breathing space, back British jobs, and drive growth in every postcode, underpinned by a commitment to meet the fiscal rules. As has always been the case, decisions on tax are a matter for the chancellor to set out at fiscal events, rather than routinely commenting on rumour, speculation or proposals.”